If you turn on CNN or another mainstream news outlet, you’ll likely hear that Democratic Party presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has all but wrapped up the presidency and is now turning her attention to helping other Democrats take back control of Congress. Not so fast.
The latest UPI poll has some different news for the Clinton camp.
The poll indicated Wednesday that Donald Trump has a lead in the electoral college for the first time in the general election cycle. Clinton would get 246 electoral college votes compared to Trump’s 292 electoral college votes, well over the 270 votes needed to win the election.
Still, there are 12 states with a margin of error 5 percent or less that UPI is classifying as swing states. Without consideration of these states, Trump and Clinton are tied at 191 secure electoral college votes. No doubt we will see both candidates and their supporters flocking to those states.
Trump currently leads in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Ohio. Clinton leads in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. With the exception of Nebraska and Maine, all of these states award all of their electoral votes based on the state’s popular vote. The likelihood of Trump reaching the magic number of 270 is based on the assumption that both candidates will win the states in which they currently lead.
The current poll of likely voters was taken between September 12-25, which includes at least some of the time frame following the final presidential debate. The results of this poll support the UPI daily polls, the most recent of which have the candidates in a statistical tie. UPI conducts their polls bimonthly.
In another example of media bias, UPI itself is misrepresenting their own data to the public. UPI that “Clinton would win the election in a landslide with 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191 – the same as the past two week’s polling results.” Based on their own polling data, the only way for that to happen would be for Trump to lose all of the swing states, an unlikely outcome.