The campaign of Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton is waking up unhappy today. We have already seen news from the UPI this week that Clinton’s poll numbers are dropping and that her rival, Republican Party presidential nominee Donald Trump has a likely electoral college lead. Now a leading election forecaster is saying that Clinton will lose the election on November 8.
The UK’s INews reported on Wednesday that poll results are not good for the Clinton camp. The “latest results from the poll considered to have most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, by IBD/TIPP, suggest that Ms. Clinton may have a lead of just 0.6 per cent over Mr. Trump, with 41.8 per cent backing the former US Secretary of State compared with 41.2 per cent for Mr. Trump.” Another poll from Bloomberg is also revealing a Trump lead in the key battleground state of Florida.
INews also spoke with Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University in New York. Norpoth developed a statistical model that has correctly predicted the last five winners of US presidential elections. “My forecast says that he’s going to win 52.5 per cent of the two-party vote, that would give Hilary 47.5 per cent. I attach something like 87 per cent certainty that he’s going to win.” Norpoth notes the differences between his results and some polls (but not all) that still show Clinton in the lead. He stressed that his results are based on data and statistics rather than on the more fluid poll numbers. Nortpoth states that Trump’s likely victory is in part simply due to his party noting that it is rare for any party to win a third White House term in a row.
The polls clearly seem to be swinging in Trump’s direction as we enter the homestretch of this divisive campaign season. There’s the UPI poll showing Trump with an electoral college lead, the Bloomberg poll showing Trump ahead in Florida, and there are the IBD/TIPP poll (correctly predicting the last three presidents) and the Norpoth model (correctly predicting the last five presidents) resulting in a victorious Trump.
The math is starting to add up with less than two weeks to swing voters to each candidate’s side. Both campaigns are stressing voter turnout as critical to victory. That should bode well for the Republicans who have already experienced a record voter turnout during the primary season.