The Clinton machine, aka the Democratic-media complex, is boasting about its alleged advantages so far in early voting states, but this may be just more propaganda. And this is happening against the backdrop of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump getting a massive turnout for each of his rallies while hardly anyone shows up to see Clinton/Kaine.
Plus, it also assumes that all Democrats (apart from the dead ones) are casting ballots for Hillary Clinton.
Serious questions have been raised throughout the election cycle about the validity of much of the public polling data in a volatile environment that critics claim are ideologically cooked to favor Clinton. From Fox News:
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is touting some ‘eye-popping’ advantages in early voting, in an apparent effort to energize Democratic voters, but preliminary figures suggest the race remains tighter than her aides acknowledge…In Arizona and North Carolina, for example, more registered Democrats than Republicans have indeed cast early ballots.
But such numbers are open to interpretation, including how many Democrats in those two states voted for Clinton. Meanwhile, early data shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with potential advantages of his own in battleground states Florida, Ohio and elsewhere.
The Clinton narrative may not be holding up in Butler County, Ohio, for example. From WCPO in Cincinnati:
Absentee voting in Republican stronghold Butler County is up 9 percent this year compared to 2012, and 21 percent over 2008. Two weeks before the election, the Butler County Board of Elections has seen 40 percent more requests from Republicans compared to 2012, and 51 percent more requests from Republicans compared to 2008.
And in terms of sheer totals, there have been almost three times as many absentee and vote-by-mail requests from Republican voters so far this year…There’s been a 3 percent increase in in-person early voting, too, even though there are now fewer days to do it…
According to the Conservative Treehouse, early voting trends favor Trump carrying the state of Florida handily.
“This reality is exactly opposite from the media narrative,” they write.
The Real Clear Politics average of 10 national polls currently gives Clinton a four-point edge over Trump, although obviously the presidency is won on a state-by-state basis by the first candidate to reach 270 electoral votes.
Political Science Professor Helmut Norpoth, who has a 20-year accuracy record in national elections, discounts the polls, and using his own model, claims that Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of winning the presidency.