President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the next President of the United States in just one week. His rise to victory both within the large Republican primary field as well as in the general election was predicted by perhaps no one other than Trump and his family. As the campaign proceeded, however, more and more people across the country began to listen to Trump and liked his unorthodox approach to traditional politics.
As Election Day quickly approached, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway predicted a victory. An October 2016 article in the Washington Post highlighted how Conway would approach the media at the end of the day and boldly proclaim “we will win.”
The Post article attempted to illustrate how Conway could possibly come to that conclusion. They asserted that while her numbers added up the way she was spinning them, there was still a significant amount of variability that could easily lead to a Trump loss.
Philip Bump, the author of the Post story, pointed out that Conway was giving both Trump and Clinton credit for states where they were leading but did not necessarily have a lock. By that math, Trump only needed to pick up one additional state with just a few weeks to go until election day.
Bump instead created his own map using a Real Clear Politics average of polls and awarding many more states to Clinton giving her a clear victory in the Electoral College.
“The numbers don’t show a close race,” Bump wrote. “They show a race that it will be very hard for Trump to win without a massive, collective underestimation of his levels of support.”
But here’s how things panned out:
It seems that is precisely what happened. The Democratic Party, the campaign of Hillary Clinton, mainstream polls and the media all underestimated Trump at nearly every step of the way. And now we are looking forward one week from today where we will see a businessman rather than a politician take on the reigns of our country.
Trump will most assuredly govern like no one else ever has. The American people were ready for real hope and change. And the Washington Post, as well as the rest of the media, illustrated their own “massive, collective underestimation of [Trump’s] levels of support.”
Source: Washington Post